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The March 2011 Boise Real Estate numbers are in. Sales are UP 37% from last month, but down 8% down from this month last year. It's difficult to compare home sales this year to last year's numbers because at this time last year, we were in the final months of the first time home-buyer tax credit. As a result, March, April, May & June of 2010 were very strong. That said, March 2011 is stronger than both March 08 and 09. Boise home sales volumes are looking up!
What can we expect from the Boise real estate market in the coming months? More sales--pending sales are up 12% from last month. Although we will not keep pace with last spring, my guess is that home sales this summer will outpace last summer. When the tax credit ended last year, we have several very slow months.
Distressed sales still make up a huge portion of the total home sales. Boise short Sales were 20% of the total this month-just off our record high set last month at 23%. In addition, REO sales in March were 38% of total, again only slightly off the all-time high of 40% set in December 2010. Altogether, distressed sales make up well over half of all Boise real estate sales (58%). At that pace, we are still near our record high of 61% in December 2010. In short, sales volumes are relatively strong, but are driven largely by distressed homes. Most real estate shoppers can easily shop only distressed homes and find enough of a selection to be satisfied.
What about Boise home prices? The good news is that dollar volume is up 30% from last month. The bad news is that we are down 20% from last year. What does that mean? It means prices are still dropping. The median cost of a Boise home sold this month is $135,000. This is down 9% from last month; and down 14% from this month last year. When excluding new construction, the numbers look even worse. The median resale home was $128,900 this month-down 9% from last month and down 18% this month last year. The good new...? The past two months are up slightly from our record low in January 2011 at $126,500. My guess is that we are near the bottom. Increasing sales volumes should result in stabilizing and eventually increasing home prices.
Three indicators make me believe Boise home prices will stabilize soon. 1) Affordability, 2) Inventory levels, and 3) Price Discounts.
Affordability. In January 2005 the median priced resale home cost 19% of a Boise resident's median income. At the height of the real estate bubble (June 2006) that number ballooned to 30%. Now the affordability index has plummeted to 12% for a resale home! At this point, that's a record low. While prices may fall a bit more, I believe we are near the bottom.
Which brings me to my second reason for believing home prices will stabilize. Inventory has dropped 28% compared to last year at this time (down another 2% from last month). New Construction inventory is 570 vs. 644 last year. New Construction inventory has dropped for 42 of the last 54 months since reaching a high of 1890 September 2006. Resale inventory is 2057. Last year at this time there were 3028 resale homes for sale. July 2008 was the all-time record high at 3920. July 2005 was the low point in resale inventory at 657. (Look at that run-up in the 12 month period from 7/05 to 7/06. No wonder the Boise real estate bubble burst.)
Finally, trends in price discounts indicate that prices are stabilizing. This month, discounts given off asking price are only 1.1%. Last year at this time, it was 3.0%. As prices skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006, discounts were virtually non-existent. In the "dark ages of Boise real estate (2007 to 2010)average price discounts approached 7% as sellers struggled to come to grips with the rapidly plummeting market. However, now sellers are pricing homes at market price and they are moving. As indicated, discounts have shrunk to around 1%.
Todd McCauley owns Eagle Rock Properties, a Boise real estate company based in Eagle, Idaho. He works with a variety of real estate investors and specializes in helping them find strong renters and/or rent-to-own candidates. He manages a program called The HELP Program that helps buyers identify and correct issues that keep them from qualifying for a mortgage and can be reached at 208-938-4032. If you are looking for Boise homes to buy, sell, or rent, then Todd is your answer.
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